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Miami Condo Market 2025: Experts Warn of 40% Price Crash Incoming

Jonathan GillJonathan Gill
11 min read
REAL ESTATE
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Miami's Luxury Condo Crisis

Miami's once-red-hot luxury condo market is showing severe cracks in 2025, with experts warning of an impending 40% price correction. The city now has over 4,000 unsold luxury units — representing 24 months of supply at current absorption rates. The perfect storm of rising hurricane insurance premiums (up 400% since 2022), higher interest rates, and reduced foreign buying has created the worst conditions since the 2008 crash.

Many buildings completed during the 2021-2023 boom are now facing special assessments of $100,000+ per unit to cover insurance and structural repairs. Foreign buyers, particularly from Latin America, have largely disappeared due to currency devaluation and capital controls. Domestic buyers are being priced out by HOA fees that have doubled in many buildings. The situation is particularly dire in Sunny Isles Beach and Brickell, where inventory levels have reached crisis proportions.

The Insurance Death Spiral

The insurance crisis has become the primary driver of distress. Many carriers have exited Florida entirely, leaving remaining providers to raise rates dramatically. Buildings constructed with cheaper materials during the boom are now discovering major structural issues requiring million-dollar repairs. The combination of skyrocketing insurance, special assessments, and falling prices has created a toxic mix that is forcing owners into distressed sales. Some buildings have seen 60% of units hit the market simultaneously, creating a downward price spiral that shows no signs of stopping.